Path for the Public Finances, 2018: Too Hot, Too Cold! The Irish Cycle

This conference took place on 5th March 2018 and explored:

• how the economic cycle is measured;
• the possibility of overheating in the Irish economy; and
• potential long-run impacts on Ireland’s trend growth from Brexit and other external developments.

International experts and key players in Ireland discussed how they are trying to address these problems.

Programme

• IFAC Conference Programme 2018

Presentations

International Perspectives

• “Measuring the Cycle and Structural Shocks”
  —Dr. Garry Young, National Institute of Economic and Social Research
• “Overheating”
  —Eddie Casey and Niall Conroy, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
• Keynote presentation: “The Cycle and the Fiscal Rules”
  —Dr. Zsolt Darvas, Bruegel

Measuring the Irish Cycle

• “Measuring the Irish Economic Cycle: Estimates from a Multi-Model Approach”
  —Michael O’ Grady, Central Bank of Ireland
• “Taking the temperature — measuring the economic cycle in Ireland”
  —John McCarthy, Department of Finance
• “COSMO (COre Structural MOdel of the Irish economy) and Capacity Output”
  —Dr. Adele Bergin and Dr. Abian Garcia Rodriguez, Economic and Social Research Institute

Panel discussion: “Where Does This Leave Us?”

• Seamus Coffey, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Moderator)
• John FitzGerald, Trinity College Dublin
• Sebastian Barnes, OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
• Dr. Mark Cassidy, Central Bank of Ireland
• Prof. Kieran McQuinn, Economic and Social Research Institute