This is one of the Council’s main reports. Two such reports are published each year.
This report assesses the Government’s plans after Budget 2025. It looks at the overall fiscal stance, the forecasts, and how it complies with fiscal rules.
- Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2024 (full report)
- Summary
- Data Pack
- Press Release
- Briefing Presentation
- Supporting items (additional analysis)
- Endorsement note
Report
Additional materials
Summary
Ireland has never had as high a share of those in their prime working years at work.
Wages have started to rise faster than prices, helping consumers.
Phenomenal levels of excess corporation tax receipts, nearly €16 billion every year, are keeping Ireland in surplus.
Injecting these receipts into a strong economy is risky.
These receipts may well increase, but they remain high risk. Just three companies account for most of the windfalls.
A key risk for Ireland is that budget policy has become de-anchored.
Awash with resources, spending has increased rapidly.
If this pattern continued and windfalls dried up, it would set Ireland’s public debt on a steep upward path. Rising ageing pressures would make this difficult to reverse.
This calls for Ireland setting a more strategic course
Now is the time to plan seriously. The Government should:
1) set out a sustainable rule it will stick to, curbing pressures and avoiding needless job losses in the next recession.
2) realistically plan for health, housing, and climate challenges.
3) treat its exceptional corporation tax receipts more like Norway treats its oil — as a high-risk, finite resource.
