Our work

Each year, the Council produces its

  1. Fiscal Assessment Reports
  2. Pre-Budget Statement
  3. Flash Release on Budget Day
  4. Endorsements of Official Economic forecasts

We also produce less regular research:

  1. Long-term Fiscal Sustainability and Fiscal Risks
  2. Working Papers
  3. Analytical Notes
  4. Research Datasets
  5. Conferences and presentations
  6. Boxes

Fiscal Assessment Reports

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2024
Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2024

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2023
Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2023

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2022
Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2022

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2021
Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2021

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2020
Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2020

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2019
Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2019

Long-term Sustainability Analysis

Long-term Sustainability Report 2020
Long-term Sustainability Methodology Report 2020

Supporting research series
Nº1 What Climate Change means for Ireland’s Public Finances

Pre-Budget Statements

Pre-Budget 2024 Statement
Pre-Budget 2023 Statement
Pre-Budget 2022 Statement
Pre-Budget 2021 Statement
Pre-Budget 2020 Statement
Pre-Budget 2019 Statement
Pre-Budget 2018 Statement
Pre-Budget 2017 Statement
Pre-Budget 2016 Statement

Endorsements

Endorsement letter, September 2024
Endorsement letter, April 2024
Endorsement letter, April 2024
Endorsement letter, December 2023
Endorsement letter, September 2023
Endorsement letter, April 2023
Endorsement letter, September 2022
Endorsement letter, April 2022
Endorsement letter, September 2021
Endorsement letter, April 2021
Endorsement letter, September 2020
Endorsement letter, April 2020
Endorsement letter, September 2019
Endorsement letter, April 2019

Flash Releases on Budget Day

Flash Release on Budget 2025, 1 Oct 2024
Flash Release on Budget 2024, Oct 2023
Flash Release on Budget 2023, Oct 2022
Flash Release on Budget 2022, Oct 2021

Working Papers

Estimating monthly consumer spending using card payment data
Killian Carroll, November 2024

Ireland’s Infrastructure Demands
Niall Conroy and Kevin Timoney, October 2024

Estimating spending multipliers in Ireland using the narrative approach
Elliott Jordan-Doak, August 2023

Demystifying Ireland’s national income: a bottom-up analysis of GNI* and productivity
Kevin Timoney, June 2023

Understanding Ireland’s Top Corporation Taxpayers
Brian Cronin, June 2023

Saving for Ireland’s Future: Building a Sustainable Framework to Fund the State Pension
Killian Carroll and Sebastian Barnes, March 2023

Estimating Ireland’s Probability of a Recession
Eddie Casey and Niall Conroy, February 2023

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council at 10 Years
Sebastian Barnes and Elliott Jordan-Doak, September 2022

Free State to Tax state: A century of taxation in
Ireland
Killian Carroll, April 2022

Managing Government Debt at High Altitude: Velocity, Instability and Headwinds
Sebastian Barnes, Eddie Casey and Elliott Jordan-Doak, March 2021

The Role of Elasticities in Forecasting Government Revenue
Niall Conroy, February 2021

Maq: A Macro-Fiscal Model for Ireland
Eddie Casey and David Purdue, February 2021

Forecasting Ireland’s Macroeconomy: A Large Bayesian VAR Approach
Killian Carroll, September 2020

When gravity hits: projecting Ireland’s migration
Ainhoa Osés Arranz, December 2019

Estimating Ireland’s Tax Elasticities: A Policy-Adjusted Approach
Niall Conroy, June 2019

The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?
Niall Conroy and Eddie Casey, March 2019

Ireland’s Spending Multipliers
Kate Ivory, Eddie Casey, and Niall Conroy, January 2019

Nowcasting to Predict Data Revisions
Eddie Casey, October 2018

Designing a Rainy Day Fund to Work Within the Fiscal Rules
Eddie Casey, Niall Conroy, Kevin Timoney, and Ainhoa Osés Arranz, June 2018

Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap
Eddie Casey, January 2018

Producing Short-Term Forecasts of the Irish Economy
Niall Conroy and Eddie Casey, May 2017

An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland
Andrew Hannon and Róisín O’Sullivan, September 2015

Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Data: The Case of Ireland
Eddie Casey and Diarmaid Smyth, March 2015

The Government’s Balance Sheet after the Crisis: A Comprehensive Perspective
Sebastian Barnes and Diarmaid Smyth, September 2013

Analytical Notes

Ireland’s spending rule and the third wave of the EU’s fiscal rules
Eddie Casey and Brian Cronin, June 2023

Ireland’s modified domestic demand: what it tells us and where we should be cautious
Eddie Casey, May 2023

Household Consumption and Savings in Ireland Since the Covid-19 Pandemic
Kevin Timoney, November 2022

Potential impact of Commission on Taxation and Welfare proposals
Eddie Casey, November 2022

A Bottom-Up Sectoral Assessment of the Strength of Income Tax Receipts
Kevin Timoney, May 2022

Historical Public Spending in Ireland: An Experimental Dataset
Brian Barbieri and Gemma Bewley, April 2022 Link to datasets

The path for Ireland’s health budget
Eddie Casey and Killian Carroll, November 2021

Ireland’s next ramp-up in public investment
Niall Conroy, Eddie Casey and Elliott Jordan-Doak, November 2021

Estimating Ireland’s Budgetary Semi-Elasticities
Killian Carroll, July 2019

A “Heat Map” for Monitoring Imbalances in the Irish Economy
Kevin Timoney and Eddie Casey, September 2018

Challenges Forecasting Irish Corporation Tax
Eddie Casey and Andrew Hannon, September 2016

Public Capital: Investment Stocks and Depreciation
Andrew Kennedy June 2016

Controlling the Health Budget: Annual Budget Implementation in the Public Health Area
John Howlin, August 2015

The EU Expenditure Benchmark: Operational Issues for Ireland in 2016
April 2015

Adoption of New International Standards for National Accounts and Balance of Payments
Eddie Casey, November 2014

Future Implications of the Debt Rule
John Howlin, June 2014

DIRT Forecast Methodology
Andrew Hannon, June 2014

Tax Forecasting Error Decomposition
Andrew Hannon, June 2014

Sensitivity Analysis of the Department of Finance Approach to Potential Output Estimation under the EC Methodology
John Howlin, June 2014

House Price Risks
Eddie Casey, June 2014

Research Datasets

The Council has produced a number of datasets over the years that may be of use to researchers.

Please cite the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council or corresponding authors if you use any of these datasets.

Narrative Approach Spending Shocks Dataset

This dataset provides time series on spending shocks using the “narrative approach”. The approach used to develop the dataset is set out in an accompanying working paper.

Long-Run Tax Dataset (2022 Update)

This dataset provides long-run estimates of a number of tax heads for Ireland.

Policy-Adjusted Tax Dataset

This dataset provides a number of “policy-adjusted” measures of various revenue sources. The dataset and associated working paper (Conroy, 2019) can be found at:

Free State to Tax state: A century of taxation in Ireland

Long-Run Tax Rate and Tax Band Dataset

This dataset provides detail on Ireland’s tax rates and bands that applied since 1922. The link to the associated working paper (Carroll, 2022) is also included below:

Historical Public Spending in Ireland: An Experimental Dataset (Analytical Note)

Finance Accounts Dataset

Appropriation Accounts Dataset

These datasets represent an experimental long-run central government spending dataset for Ireland. The associated Analytical Note is Barbieri and Bewley, (2022).