Boxes

The Council often includes “boxes” covering economic or fiscal issues in its main publications.

These are self-contained analyses unique to the publication in which they appear.

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2024

1. Box A: Where will additional construction workers come from?
2. Box B: How narrow is Ireland’s tax base
3. Box C: Potential windfalls from Data Protection fines
4. Box D: Reinforcing the National Spending Rule
5. Box E: What rate should the National Spending Rule be set at?
6. Box F: Substantial EU fiscal rule reforms come into place

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2023

1. Box A: The inflationary impact of Budget 2024 tax cuts
2. Box B: Revisions to Irish consumption data
3. Box C: What does “core” and “non-core” mean?
4. Box D: Fiscal gimmickry strikes back
5. Box E: Are health pressures predictable?
6. Box F: What is happening Ireland’s corporation taxes?
7. Box G: Ireland’s green transition can be managed
8. Box H: The Future Ireland Fund
9. Box I: The Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund
10. Box J: The latest developments towards EU fiscal rules reform

June 2023 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: Recent developments in the ICT and pharmaceuticals sectors
2. Box B: Auto-enrolment and the savings ratio
3. Box C: Forecast errors point to inconsistencies in the fiscal forecasts
4. Box D: Windfall corporation tax receipts flattering the public finance
5. Box E: New fund could be a landmark reform
6. Box F: Updated reform proposals to the EU fiscal rules

November 2022 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: Changing consumer habits pose risks to forecasts of inflation
2. Box B: Recent trends in public health sector staffing
3. Box C: Adjusting the general government balance for excess corporation tax receipts
4. Box D: Ireland’s Reserve fund is restored but needs rethinking
5. Box E: Potential reforms to the EU fiscal rules

May 2022 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: Household income and Macro-Fiscal (in)consistency
2. Box B: A bottom-up assessment of income tax forecasts across sectors
3. Box C: Fiscal impacts of Ukrainian humanitarian spending
4. Box D: The Stand-Still approach and the Government’s medium-term spending estimates
5. Box E: The impact of inflation on government revenue
6. Box F: Recent increases in cash balances
7. Box G: Exchequer has benefited from some €22 billion excess corporation tax
8. Box H: Auto enrolment could have significant macro and fiscal implications
9. Box I: Inflation and the Government’s 5% Spending Rule

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2021

1. Box A: The impact of the pandemic on the composition of the workforce and compensation of employees
2. Box B: Modelling inflation in Ireland
3. Box C: Department of Finance now making greater use of GNI* when assessing budgetary sustainability and real economic activity
4. Box D: Pensions Commission recommends substantial reforms to ensure sustainability of the pension system
5. Box E: Implications of a spending rule on the structural balance

Pre-Budget 2022 Statement

1. Box A: Official forecasts of the domestic economy are not consistent with the Government’s fiscal plans
2. Box B: The Government’s new spending rule is welcome but needs work
3. Box B: Higher investment helps address priorities but could be costly

Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2021

1. Box A: Excess household savings could substantially boost economic activity
2. Box B: Higher productivity is an artefact of the pandemic
3. Box C: The impact of warehousing on tax receipts
4. Box D: The resilience of income tax in 2020
5. Box E: The Government’s new climate change targets need clear costings
6. Box F: Corporate tax reforms could reduce revenues
7. Box G: EU Funds will add to the State’s resources
8. Box H: Irish debt fares reasonably well on a fiscal standards assessment
9. Box I: A bottom-up assessment of Ireland’s structural primary balance

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2020

1. Box A: BEPS Reforms of International Tax Rules
2. Box B: What the Government’s medium-term strategy should do
3. Box C: The regional impact of Covid-19 on Ireland’s domestic economy
4. Box D: Updated Macroeconomic Scenarios to 2025
5. Box E: Covid-19 Support Measures
6. Box F: Seasonal Adjustment of Exchequer Tax Revenues
7. Box G: Policy Measures and Fiscal Scenarios
8. Box H: Covid-19, the structural balance, and one-off/temporary measures
9. Box I: Making the domestic fiscal rules more relevant

Fiscal Assessment Report, May 2020

1. The economic shock depends on how Covid-19 evolves
2. Fiscal supports cushion the economic impact of Covid-19
3. Prospects for consumer spending could be better than in official forecasts
4. Three Macroeconomic Scenarios to 2025
5. Forecasting real GNI* growth rates in place of GDP and GNP
6. Policy measures introduced since the Covid-19 outbreak
7. Experience of Falling Revenues in the 2008 Crisis
8. Half of corporation tax receipts explained by domestic economy
9. Policy Measures and Fiscal Scenarios
10. Net debt and contingent liabilities
11. Exceptional Circumstances and the General Escape Clause

November 2019 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. The Department should improve its general government accounting
2. Contributions to the Rainy Day Fund suspended before they start
3. The Department of Finance’s proposals to address corporation tax risks
4. Characterising downturns in Ireland’s domestic economy
5. How well do consumer and business sentiment correspond to real economic activity?
6. Using a Large Bayesian VAR for short-run forecasting of Ireland’s macroeconomy
7. Current primary spending is the main driver of spending drift in recent years
8. The impact of Brexit on the public finances assumed in Budget 2020
9. Health overruns in recent years: magnitude and main drivers
10. Assessing the discretionary revenue measures introduced in Budget 2020
11. The way health spending is reported can lead to different conclusions about its performance
12. What are Approved Housing Bodies?
13. Using GNI* star to assess compliance with the Expenditure Benchmark
14. Fiscal vulnerabilities – assessing compliance with the Department of Finance’s suggested alternative fiscal rules

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2019

1. Sustainable Growth
2. Dealing with the Economic and Fiscal Impact of Surging Corporation Tax Receipts
3. Fiscal Impacts of Hard Brexit Scenarios
4. Reforms to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
5. Deriving Forecasts for Modified Gross National Income and the Modified Current Account
6. Capital Project Overruns in Ireland
7. Sources of Revenue Surprises Over Recent Years
8. Corporation Tax Concentration and Volatility
9. Forecasting Tax Revenue a Reassessment of Elasticities
10. An Assessment of Ireland’s Compliance with the Fiscal Rules for 2018 under EU Methods
11. The Uncertainty in assessing Compliance with the Fiscal Rules

Assessment of Compliance with the Domestic Budgetary Rule in 2018

• Principles-Based Approach to the Budgetary Rule

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2018

1. Measuring Government Stimulus Using Net Policy Spending
2. Demographic Change and Public Finances
3. Underlying Measures of the Irish Economy
4. Health Overruns
5. Fiscal Rules under Department of Finance’s Alternative Output Gap Estimates
6. Introductory Guide to the Debt Rule

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2018

1. The Duration of Cycles: Death by Illness, Not by Age
2. The Appropriate Size of the Rainy Day Fund
3. Impact of a Large, Foreign-Owned Multinational Firm Exiting Ireland
4. New Alternative Supply-Side Estimates
5. The Evolution of the Public Finances since Budget 2015
6. Approved Housing Bodies
7. Capital Expenditure and the National Development Plan
8. Compliance with the Fiscal Rules Before the Crisis
9. The Medium-term Orientation of the Fiscal Framework

November 2017 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Rainy Day Fund
2. “Strong and Stable” — The Procyclicality of the CAM
3. Challenges in Assessing the Equilibrium Household Savings Rate in Ireland
4. Modelling Goods Exports
5. Problems with the Commonly Agreed Methodology as Applied to Ireland
6. Examining the Quality of Discretionary Tax Measures
7. Plans for Public Investment Spending
8. Ireland’s Public Debt Burden
9. The Council’s Assessment of the Preventive Arm

June 2017 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Standard Debt Ratios and a 45 Per Cent Target
2. Fan Charts for Components of GDP and Employment
3. Potential Output, Overheating and the Department’s Commitment to Developing Alternatives to the Commonly Agreed Methodology (CAM)
   
4. Macroeconomic Indicators for Ireland and Multinational Activities
5. Spending Reviews
6. Public Capital and Investment Expenditure
7. The Council’s Stand-Still Medium Term Expenditure Scenario
8. One-Off/Temporary Measures Relevant to 2016 Assessment
9. Medium Term Expenditure Ceilings

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2016

1. Box A: The Evolution of the Budgetary Process
2. Box B: Brexit Latest Indicators and Possible Implications for the Irish Economy
3. Box C: the Disproportionate Impact of Corporation Taxes
4. Box D: Fiscal Council Stand-Still Expenditure Scenario
5. Box E: Assessment of Compliance with the Budgetary Rule
6. Box F – What is Fiscal Space
7. Box G – Implications of 2015 GDP Outturn for Fiscal Rules

June 2016 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: A Programme for a Partnership Government
2. Box B: Rainy Day Funds
3. Box C: Contributions to Growth, Headline vs. Underlying
4. Box D: Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks and Expenditure Forecasts
5. Box E: Medium-Term Expenditure Scenario
6. Box F: The Update to Ireland’s Medium Term Objective (MTO)
7. Box G: Introductory Guide to the Preventative Arm and the Budgetary Rule

Fiscal Assessment Report, November 2015

1. Box A: Alternative Potential Output Estimates and a Modular Approach
2. Box B: Use of Alternative Output Gap Measures by EU Finance Ministries
3. Box C: Health Expenditure in 2015 and Implications for Future Expenditure
4. Box D: Corporation Tax in 2015
5. Box E: Illustrative Medium -Term Expenditure Scenario
6. Box F: Setting Fiscal Rules in the Preventative Arm of the SGP

Fiscal Assessment Report, June 2015

1. Box A: Contract Manufacturing in 2014
2. Box B: Towards More Relevant Measures of Potential Output
3. Box C: Decomposition of Forecast Errors (An Update)
4. Box D: Statistical Treatment of Irish Water
5. Box E: Assumptions for Illustrative Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO)

November 2014 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: What are Income Data Telling Us?
2. Box B: Estimates of Car Sales
3. Box C: Weaknesses in 2013 Real GDP
4. Box D: Treatment of One-off and Temporary Measures

June 2014 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: Sectoral Productivity and Changes in the Composition of Employment
2. Box B: A Closer Look at General Government Deficit Forecast Errors
3. Box C: Revisions to Structural Balance Estimates for 2013

November 2013 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. The Endorsement Function and The Memorandum of Understanding
2. Forecasts on a “Most Likely” Basis – The Meaning of The Budget Projections
3. Annual GDP Growth and Carryover Effects
4. The Dynamics of Balance Sheet Recessions
5. Impact on Forecasts Of Budget Moving To October
6. The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
7. Incentive Challenges in Public Expenditure Management: The Soft Budget
   Constraint and The Ratchet Effect
8. The Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO)
9. The EU Expenditure Benchmark

April 2013 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: A Decomposition of Forecast Errors
2. Box B: Department of Finance One-Year-Ahead Tax Forecasts
3. Box C: Impact of The Promissory Note Announcement on the Government Accounts
4. Box D: Current Expenditure Ceilings
5. Box E: The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
6. Box F: Identifying the Appropriate Medium Term Fiscal Stance:
   Some Considerations
7. Box G: Battle of The Multiplier Boxes

September 2012 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: Measures of Output: GDP and GNP
2. Box B: Banking Related Revenues in the Exchequer Data
3. Box C: A Hybrid Measure of Fiscal Capacity
4. Box D: Fiscal Rules set out in the Fiscal Responsibility Bill

April 2012 Fiscal Assessment Report

1. Box A: Forecasts for VAT from Budget 2012
2. Box B: Fiscal Implications of the Promissory Notes
3. Box C: Self-Defeating Fiscal Adjustment

October 2011 Fiscal Assessment Report

• Box 2.1: Irish Growth Forecasts
• Box 3.1: Cyclically Adjusted Balances and the Output Gap
• Box 3.2: Fiscal-Feedback Model
• Box 4.1: The Real Effects of Austerity