Estimating monthly consumer spending using card payment data
Killian Carroll
November 2024
Fiscal Council Working Paper Nº24
Summary
Household consumption is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators in Ireland. But it can be tricky to get a proper handle of what is happening in real time.
This paper produces a monthly estimate of household consumption using granular data on bank card payments. It captures almost 90% of the official estimate.
Using our estimates, we find evidence that real household consumption in 2024 continues to be strong. Year-on-year growth rates were likely to be close to 6% in the third quarter of 2024. This is stronger than other high-frequency indicators suggest.