- Budget 2018:
- stuck to outlined plans for 2018;
- funded faster spending growth through tax-raising measures.
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€1.7 billion gross fiscal space allowed under rules for 2018 measures.
Budget 2018 plans used all of this estimated fiscal space. - +€0.83 billion tax-raising measures for 2018 introduced in the budget. These measures enabled faster spending growth than initial limits set by the fiscal rules.
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4th highest net government debt ratio in the OECD (Ireland as % of GNI*).
5th highest as % government revenue. -
6.1% unemployment rate in November 2017.
Forecasts imply continued fall to 5.5% by end of 2018. - Risks!
- Overheating – especially if faster growth from a welcome recovery in housing supply is not offset elsewhere.
- Hard Brexit impacts could be more severe; corporation tax risks.
Government needs a Credible Plan for the medium term
- ? Help avoid a repeat of Excessive Expansions in good times.
- ? Build buffers against future downturns.
- Commit to spending rule ↩️
- Strengthen Rainy Day Fund ↩️
- Develop toolkit for assessing the cycle ↩️
- Public investment target